UFC 326 main event prediction & breakdown

UFC caravan goes on, and in no time we have found ourselves at the doorstep of UFC 326. The Ultimate Fighting Championship continues on March 7th, 2026. For those unaware of what Dana White & co have been preparing, the main event is a rematch a decade in the making between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. This duel will decide who takes home the BMF belt, but also put the winner into the lightweight title talks. 

As we said, the event is scheduled for Saturday, March 7th. The home venue is going to be the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, which is an adequate battleground for Holloway vs. Oliveira 2. While both the media and UFC have dubbed this duel as the second one between Max and Charles in a series that could spin a trilogy, this is not your average rematch.

After all, it’s been more than ten years since they last met. They’re not the same fighters anymore, and that’s something you need to have on your mind if you were to wager on the upcoming event. If you plan on doing that, checking out these expert UFC 326 picks and predictions is the way to go, too. 

Holloway vs Oliveira 2 preview and odds for UFC 326

We’re only two weeks removed from what might be the biggest UFC event of the year. UFC 325 was good enough we guess, but Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 at UFC 326 promises a lot more action. After a couple of uneventful Fight Nights, the fans of MMA are gearing up to see a rematch that was a decade in the making. While both fighters are far removed from their best years, no one should underestimate their ability to put on a show and fight till the last bell. After all, Max Holloway is a former featherweight champion, while Charles Oliveira held the lightweight belt for a while. 

While the rest of the event will be played out in the shadow of Holloway vs. Oliveira, you shouldn’t miss out on any of the fights. Max and Charles will be looking to extend their careers and leave one last mark on the world of fighting, but at the same time, many youngsters will be looking to make their name heard in Las Vegas under the biggest spotlight. 

The brightest lights will be, without a doubt, on Max and Charles at UFC 326. The last time the two met was at the UFC Fight Night in Saskatoon. It only took 90 seconds for the Blessed to stop Oliveira as the latter had to admit defeat after suffering a neck injury. Fast forward ten years, and if you take a look back you can tell that both fighters have had distinguished careers. At the moment, one could argue that Holloway is entering this bout on a higher note after sending Dustin Poirier to retirement during his last fight. 

On the other hand, we have Charles Oliveira, who has become somewhat of a yo-yo fighter, failing to win two consecutive matches for years now. The last time he did it was during his championship run between 2018 and 2022, when he held the lightweight title too. During his incredible run, he had an 11-win streak. Nowadays, he loses more than he wins, but nonetheless, his last bout was a homecoming against Mateusz Gamrot, whom he submitted in Brazil. Before that, he lost in a memorable fashion to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317. 

If you take a look at Stake’s UFC 326 Sportsbook, it is clear that they see Max Holloway as a clear-cut favourite with his odds being set at 1.51. Charles Oliveira is not favoured by the bookmakers as his chances of winning are measured at 2.60 odds. Yet, the odds do not tell a full story. Back in the day, Holloway was a dominant featherweight champion. Once he moved to lightweight, his career went on a different trajectory. Nonetheless, he managed to reinvent himself, and once he had his hands on the BMF belt, he showed that he can take on and defeat some of the division’s finest and most experienced fighters, and Do Bronxs falls into that category too. 

Despite moving up a weight division, Holloway retained most of his pace, making him a dangerous adversary to anyone who enters the octagon with him prepared to land and receive punches. Talking about punches, when in stride, Max lands as close to 7.20 significant punches per minute. That’s what aided him a lot in making his 27-8-0 record stand in the UFC. In addition to his stand-up game which is a combo of strikes, feints, interchanged angles, and moving in and out of the range, Holloway also vastly improved his wrestling and takedown defence. 

While the BMF title is not a real belt per se, it holds a lot of value among the street-fighter types that Holloway and Oliveira certainly are. At the end of the day, Charles is one of the most decorated fighters in the UFC. As far as UFC history goes, he holds the records for most finishes and submission wins, and that’s no small feat. Unlike Holloway, Oliveira’s evolution went in a different direction. From a submission master, he learned how to become a quality striker. Today, in addition to having to respect his grappling, one also needs to be wary of Charles’ striking prowess. 

Before UFC 326, Do Bronxs record stands at 36-11-0, making him the more experienced fighter on a per fight basis, but also the one with more wear and tear. Because of this, and Max Holloway’s fighting style that gets even more pronounced when he fights for the BMF title, we believe that Oliveira will attempt to make this bout all about grappling. 

When we know the history of these two men, in a way, this could turn out to be one of those striking vs. grappling bouts. While one would usually give the advantage to the grappler, that’s not the case with Holloway vs. Oliveira. Max is a strategic striker. His striking volume, paired with his defense make him a formidable opponent for any takedown master. His range and volume control make him a danger when one attempts to grapple him from the early rounds. 

When on foot, Holloway will have the advantage, but that would be an advantage Oliveira will try to take away from him from the start. Once the fight is no longer on the feet, Do Bronxs will try to control it on the ground, and against the cage. Considering that both men have good cardio, Max will not be able to have it as an advantage this time around. Yet, conditioning and physicality will play an important role. 

It is evident that if this fight turns into a stand up exchange of hits, Holloway will have the advantage. His cardio is legendary at this point, and if Oliveira fails to wear him down during the early rounds, he could be in danger later on. We saw during some of Holloway’s last bouts that he is not too willing to allow a fight to go to a decision. Both men can take hits, and as far as chins go, both could stand their ground but also to fall apart as we saw them both falling in the hands of Ilia Topuria. 

As we said, the BMF title is more of a symbol than a real belt, but for seasoned professionals such as Max and Charles it is a testimony to their toughness and legacy in MMA. Thus, we can see both of them pushing the boundaries they have set on some of their earlier bouts. While no fighter will be lacking motivation when headlining a UFC event, and especially not one such as UFC 326 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with the BMF title on the line, it goes beyond that. 

Both fighters are aiming to get back into the title contention in the lightweight division. Max Holloway is on an impressive run, with his wins over Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje still being talked about. At the same time, Oliveira appears to be the more motivated fighter, as one who sees their previous fight as an unfinished story. During the pre-fight press conferences, Do Bronxs admitted that if it comes to striking exchanges that Holloway often calls for when he points to the middle of the octagon, he is going to accept that call. As we said, this bout is about the present lightweight rankings but also about the potential future matchups. 

The lightweight division is now ruled by Ilia Topuria, who is going to defend his belt against the interim champion Justin Gaethje. When Gaethje defeated Paddy Pimblett, the doors opened for many fighters to get back into title contention. Holloway and Oliveira are two of those fighters, as both veterans still feel as if they can compete at the highest level. After UFC 326, we will know more about which one of them is going to face who next on their pursuit for another title shot. 

As far as UFC 326 bout goes, we predict that it is going to be a surprise win by Charles Oliveira via submission. If anyone can take advantage of every scramble opportunity going his way and make a few significant early takedowns against Max Holloway it is Charles Oliveira. Considering just how Holloway approached his earlier BMF fights, and who his opponents were, we wouldn’t be surprised for him to underestimate just how much quality there is in Oliveira’s grappling. We can see this one as being one of the fastest ever Do Bronxs’ wins by submission despite the odds suggesting otherwise. 

The rest of the card at UFC 326

There’s no doubt that all eyes will be on Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira come March 7th, but don’t think even for a second that the rest of the UFC 326 card is no fun. Instead, we have one of the more evened out cards in recent memory, with many of the bouts promising to be close and fun encounters. The first bout that comes to mind is the middleweight encounter between Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder. Odds favour Caio to win this one with them being set at 1.37 for his win, and 3.10 on de Ridder. This middleweight bout will serve as a prelude for the main event. 

The next fight on UFC 326 is the duel between Rob Font and Raul Rosas Jr. Rob Font is entering this bout as a more experienced fighter, standing at 18-6-0 record, while Rosas Jr. is one of the rising stars in the bantamweight division, currently holding an 22-9-0 record. When two men meet, Raul will be the bookmakers’ favourite with his odds to win set at 1.51 while Font’s win comes at 2.60 odds. 

Another interesting bout comes our way from the middleweight division, where the 18-6-0 Gregory Rodrigues is going to face Brunno Ferreira, who has an 15-2-0 record. Gregory is entering this bout on a high note by being a 1.51 odds favourite, but at 2.60 odds, Ferreira might just be one of the biggest surprises of the evening. 

In a sea of other fights scheduled for the evening, one that will not steal any of the headlines but has caught our attention is the bout between Cody Durden and Nyamjargal Tumendemberel. The Mongolian fighter, nicknamed Art of Knockout, is favored to win this one, and you bet that he will be aiming for a knockout. His win is paid at 1.59 odds. 

The rest of the UFC 326 card concludes with Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson, Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage, Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Xiao, Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay, Su Mudaerji vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar, Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato, Jeong Yeong Lee vs. Gaston Bolanos, and Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes. 

With UFC 326 being just around the corner, there’s plenty of fighting to look forward to. Once the BMF title fight is decided, the lightweight division will be in turmoil once again, and we’re all up for it.